Canadian Goaltending Development: Crisis or Challenge?

Rod Wisco and Asia Wisco


Almost a decade ago, some hockey observers declared that Canadian goaltending development was in a state of crisis. By using minutes played in the NHL as a measurement of Canadian goaltending success, we will argue that there was a crisis in the Canadian crease earlier than previously thought. 

In the early part of the last decade, some hockey observers noted that Canada was facing a goaltending crisis.  In the spring of 2013, Damian Cox summarized the arguments being put forth that Canadian goaltending was indeed in trouble. The multi-year drought of gold medals in the IIHF World Junior Tournament was thought to be, in part, due to a lack of goaltending excellence and depth. Only one of eight (Corey Crawford of the Blackhawks) of the starting goalies in the second round of the NHL playoff rounds at the time was Canadian. The three finalists for the Vezina Trophy that season were all Europeans: New York’s Henrik Lundqvist (Sweden), Antti Niemi (Finland) of the San Jose Sharks and Columbus netminder Sergei Bobrovsky (Russia). The top CHL major junior goalie that season was from the Czech Republic. It had been five years since a Canadian netminder was the first goalie taken in the NHL draft (Chet Pickard in 2008). In the previous season less than half (11) of the 24 goalies drafted were Canadian, a trend that had been going on for years. And, the top goalie from that season's Memorial Cup tournament was Russian netminder Andrei Makarov of the Saskatoon Blades. 

These and other arguments surrounding the perceived crisis in goaltending led to some adjustments such as the banning of European goalies from the CHL Import Draft between 2014 and 2018 and the creation of a Canadian goalie coach certification program.  In the summer of 2013, one of the authors of this article (Rod) was invited to participate in the Protect the Net Symposium hosted by the Ontario Hockey League where one of the major topics was the proposed ban of import goalies from the CHL Import Draft. The main argument for the ban was that Canadian-developed goaltenders were not being given the opportunity to play Major Junior, thus limiting the opportunity to become elite goaltenders due to roster spots being taken by European-trained goaltenders.  

At the same time, the development experts at Hockey Canada began the process of developing a Goaltending Coach Certification program with the goal of increasing the level of coaching quality overall by creating an infrastructure similar to what was put into place first in Finland and then Sweden (countries from which an increasing number of NHL Goalies were trained).  

But just as soon as a Canadian goaltending emergency was declared and steps implemented attempting to solve the issue, a counterargument emerged that the world was simply catching up.  Canada, the argument went, was not really facing a crisis but a challenge from other hockey countries in terms of goaltending development.

Whatever the underlying reasons, the Minutes Played data tells us a few things about the Canadian goaltending crisis/challenge and the remedies put into place. By tallying the total minutes played by Canadian goaltenders since 2010 (around the time that some observers noted a decline in Canadian goaltending) two key patterns emerge (Figure 1).  First, Canadian goalies' NHL playing time measured in minutes played appears to be holding steady, and, second, the gap between Canada and other top countries does appear to be closing, but not dramatically so.

Figure 1.

However, if we extend the time period back to the time of the first NHL lockdown, a worrying (for Canadians) concern makes itself plain (Figure 2). For the first four seasons after the lockdown, Canadian goalies played the majority of minutes played in the NHL (thus meeting the 51% of minutes played target set by USA Hockey with #51in30.  But by the 2008-09 season, Canadian goalies' playing time dipped below 50% for the first time and has trended downward since, with an all-time low of 38.6% this past season.

 Figure 2. 


What inferences can we make from this data? If we look at the data from the time of the perceived Canadian goalie crisis (around 2010 onward), Canada does not appear to have a goalie crisis. If we extend the data back to 2005, it is quite evident Canada does seem to suffer from a goaltending crisis. but Arguably it is simply that other countries are just getting better at hockey and this is part of  the natural evolution of the game.  Whatever the case, this data raises further questions about Canada's goaltending development structure.  

Next time, we will dig deeper into the Canadian data to examine one of the possible underlying reasons behind Canada's downward trend. We don't mind giving you a hint -- think Quebec

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